Burlingame and Hillsborough homeowners who need to replace a gas water heater could face an estimated $3,500 increase in installation costs, on average, as soon as January 2027 under a Bay Area Air Quality Management District rule.

The district is considering delaying the requirement until January 2028.

The regional air agency's board is set to consider amendments at a public hearing beginning at 9 a.m. Wednesday, Nov. 4, in the first-floor boardroom at 375 Beale St. in San Francisco, according to the district's public hearing notice.

Adopted March 15, 2023, Rule 9-6 sets a zero-nitrogen-oxides emissions standard for covered new water heaters, effectively restricting conventional gas models across the Bay Area, including San Mateo County. District staff have proposed delaying the January 2027 compliance deadline until January 2028 and adding exemptions for low-income property owners, homes needing major electrical upgrades and properties with limited installation space.

Those exemptions could cover up to 38 percent of installations, the San Francisco Chronicle reported in September.

The rule applies only to new installations. Homeowners with a working gas unit would not be required to swap it out. But roughly two-thirds of Bay Area households use natural gas appliances, according to a BAAQMD fact sheet cited in a Contra Costa Herald report.

The district estimates the switch from gas to a heat pump water heater costs about $3,500 more on average. BAAQMD says the broader transition to electric water heaters and furnaces could save $400 million to $890 million per year in health costs and prevent up to 85 premature deaths annually across the region.

At least eight of the 24 board members have raised concerns. Some favor a delay. Others want a voluntary program instead, the Chronicle reported. When the newspaper asked all 24 members whether they had installed electric water heaters in their own homes, only 11 responded. Of those, four still use gas. Only one member, Steve Young, the mayor of Benicia, had made the switch. Young voted for the 2023 ban but opposes the mandate.

John Gioia, a BAAQMD board member and Contra Costa County supervisor, told the Chronicle on Sept. 27 that he is working to electrify his home and plans to replace his 2008 gas water heater with a 120-volt heat pump model. "I currently have a 100 amp panel and have been told that it can handle the new heat pump water heater and heating/cooling system without any upgrades," Gioia said.

Hundreds of rental housing providers and property owners planned to oppose the rule at the board's Wednesday, Oct. 7, meeting, arguing that it would increase housing costs and strain affordability, according to an Oct. 6 Contra Costa Herald report.

COP31 travel costs

At the same Wednesday, Oct. 7 meeting, the board was scheduled to consider authorizing Chair Lynda Hopkins and Vice Chair Vicki Veenker to travel to the United Nations COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Turkey, in November, according to the BAAQMD board agenda. Executive Officer Philip Fine, Deputy Executive Officer Viet Tran and two additional staff members were also listed as planned attendees.

The agenda itemizes estimated costs of $15,000 for the two board members' travel, $1,200 for Hopkins' chief of staff's lodging, a $35,000 contract with ICLEI for logistics and a $10,000 Climate Registry sponsorship. The chief of staff's airfare is to be paid by non-district funds. Staff travel costs for Fine, Tran and the two other employees are not separately itemized in the agenda.

COP31 runs Nov. 9–20, after the board's scheduled Nov. 4 hearing on the water heater rule.

How to weigh in

Residents who want to comment on the proposed Rule 9-6 amendments must submit written comments by 6 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 1.

Online comments must be submitted through the district's official comment portal. The district says it will not accept emailed comments.

The district is also set to apply zero-emissions standards to covered new gas furnaces in 2029. Its current rule sets a 2031 deadline for larger water heaters and boilers, but the October proposal would move that date to 2033.