Burlingame faces record flood risk from super El Niño

A potential super El Niño could deliver the highest sea levels ever recorded on the California coast and unprecedented flooding to the Bay Area starting late 2026, climate scientists warned at a virtual town hall Tuesday, Aug. 4.

Bayfront neighborhoods like Burlingame's could see months of elevated flood risk heading into winter.

"We may be seeing an event that we haven't really seen before in living memory in California," climate scientist Daniel Swain said at the town hall, which drew nearly 6,000 viewers online.

The event, hosted by state Sen. Mike McGuire (D-Healdsburg), featured Swain, Mark Merrifield of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography's Center for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, Bay Area meteorologist Mark Tamayo and Nate Ortiz, assistant director of planning and preparedness at the California Office of Emergency Management. Swain said current ocean temperatures in the Eastern Tropical Pacific are at record highs and predictive models suggest this El Niño could become the strongest ever observed.

The most significant impacts are expected around late December through March, according to experts at the town hall, as reported by NBC Bay Area.

Merrifield said rising sea levels along the open coast will also raise water levels inside San Francisco Bay. San Mateo County sea levels have already risen 8 inches over the past century, with the pace accelerating to about 0.9 inches per decade, according to the county's Sustainability Department. In January 2026, king tides topped 7 feet in parts of the county, and the combination of an atmospheric river, surging waves and high tides caused record flooding that inundated trails in Millbrae.

Tamayo warned that amplified storm tracks could also increase lightning and fire risk before the wet season arrives.

Swain noted that many California homeowners lack flood insurance and urged residents in high-risk areas to consider obtaining coverage, ABC7 reported.

How Burlingame and Hillsborough residents can prepare

Central County Fire Department, which serves Burlingame, Hillsborough and Millbrae, has promoted San Mateo County's draft Local Hazard Mitigation Plan, which addresses flooding, severe weather and climate change impacts. The plan completed its public comment period June 15.

Hillsborough provides sandbags on a self-serve basis at the Town Hall Walnut parking lot (1600 Floribunda Ave.) and at the Public Works Corporation Yard at 1320 La Honda Road during business hours, with a limit of 10 per household.

Central County Fire also offers free CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) training, which covers disaster preparedness and basic response skills. The most recent session ran in February 2026; residents can email [email protected] for information on upcoming sessions.

Ortiz recommended residents sign up for SMC Alert, the county's emergency notification system, at smcalert.info and build a "go bag" with essentials to be self-sufficient for 72 hours, including cash, key documents and charged devices.

Experts emphasized that forecasts remain predictions subject to change. Residents can sign up for SMC Alert at smcalert.info or visit smcgov.org/dem/prepare for storm readiness resources.